Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Fatah Would Defeat Hamas in Palestinian Election

August 02, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fatah is clearly the preferred political faction for residents of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, according to a poll by An-Najah National University. 55.3 per cent of respondents would support a Fatah candidate in the event of a presidential election, while 15.8 per cent would vote for a Hamas contender.

If a new ballot to choose members of the Palestinian Legislative Council took place, 54.4 per cent of respondents would vote for Fatah, while 16.4 per cent would back Hamas.

Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

On Feb. 8 in Saudi Arabia, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas, which would "respect" past peace agreements with Israel. The new coalition government was sworn in on Mar. 17.

On Jun. 14, amid a wave of violent clashes between Palestinian supporters of the Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government—based in the West Bank—and expelled Hamas from the administration.

On Jul. 30, Haniyeh discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "Gaza today is better. But the strangling siege has affected Gaza very much. (...) We do not want to establish an Islamic state in the Gaza Strip."

Polling Data

If presidential elections were conducted in the present time to whom would you give your vote?

The Fatah candidate

55.3%

The Hamas candidate

15.8%

Other / Not sure

18.9%

If legislative elections were conducted in the present time to whom would you give your vote?

Fatah candidates

54.4%

Hamas candidates

16.4%

Other / Not sure

29.2%

Source: An-Najah National University
Methodology: Interviews with 1,361 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted on Jul. 25 to Jul. 27, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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