(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Fatah faction could emerge victorious in a new election to the Palestinian Legislative Council, according to a poll by the Birzeit University Development Studies Programme. 43.3 per cent of respondents in the Gaza Strip and West Bank would support the Fatah list.

A list of Hamas candidates is second with 29.4 per cent, followed by a prospective joint list of leftist factions and independents with 15.1 per cent. 12.1 per cent of respondents are undecided.

Fatah member Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister on Mar. 28. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In April, the European Commission and the United States suspended direct aid to the Palestinian Authority until Hamas "renounces violence." Negotiations geared at establishing a unity government with Hamas and Fatah failed in October. For the past two months, tensions have escalated between supporters of the two rival factions.

On Dec. 16, Abbas said he would call early presidential and legislative elections, adding, "I have decreed the formation of the government, and I can sack it whenever I want to." Abbas holds a 7.9-point lead in a head-to-head contest against Haniyeh, and an 18-point edge over exiled Hamas leader Khalid Mashal.

On Dec. 25, Hamas confirmed that Haniyeh would attend an invitation to Jordan made by prime minister Marouf Bakhit in the following days. The purpose of the visit would be to meet with Abbas and discuss again the possibility of a unity government. Haniyeh expressed optimism, saying, "We pray to God that this step will be a good start to our national unity and putting our Palestinian house in order, to block intervention by (Israel) and the U.S. administration in our internal affairs."

Polling Data

Voting intention - Legislative Council

Voting intention - Prospective presidential races

Mahmoud Abbas (Fatah) 47.2% - 39.3% Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas)
Mahmoud Abbas (Fatah) 49.8% - 31.8% Khalid Mashal (Hamas)

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