Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Fatah First, Hamas Second in Palestinian Ballot

May 18, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The governing Fatah faction remains the favourite political group in the Palestinian Authority's next election, according to a poll by An-Najah National University. 29.5 per cent of respondents would support Fatah candidates in the Legislative Council ballot, a 2.3 per cent increase since March.

The Hamas Islamic Resistance Movement is second with 20.9 per cent—a 7.2 per cent increase in three months—followed by the Palestinian Left with 5.1 per cent. The election is scheduled for Jul. 17. In the 1996 ballot, Fatah elected 50 members to the 81-seat Legislative Council.

On Mar. 17, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas said that representatives from 13 factions—including Hamas and Islamic Jihad—had agreed to extend the temporary cessation of attacks against Israel until the end of the year.

Last year, Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmad Yassin and co-founder Abdel Aziz Rantisi were killed in separate Israeli missile strikes. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings. Hamas was the top party in seven of the 10 Gaza Strip municipalities that held local elections on Jan. 27.

Yesterday, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas welcomed Hamas' involvement in the upcoming ballot, saying, "If they would like to participate in political life, and if they win enough seats in the legislative election, they're welcome to participate, even in the future government."

Polling Data

What political party would you support in the Legislative Council elections?

 

May 2005

Mar. 2005

Fatah

29.5%

27.2%

Hamas

20.9%

13.7%

Palestinian Left

5.1%

3.3%

Source: An-Najah National University
Methodology: Interviews to 1,360 Palestinians in the West Bank and 500 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, conducted from May 11 to May 13, 2005. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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