June 01, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two-in-five people in Ecuador would ratify a new national constitution in an upcoming referendum, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 41 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of the new charter, while 31 per cent would vote against it. Almost three-in-ten remain undecided.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two-in-five people in Ecuador would ratify a new national constitution in an upcoming referendum, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 41 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of the new charter, while 31 per cent would vote against it. Almost three-in-ten remain undecided.

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents.

In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress. The proposed Constitution must be ratified in a nationwide referendum in 2008. The Constituent Assembly has discussed a wide variety of topics, including the possibility of consecutive presidential re-election, as well as new oil and mining regulations.

Correa had previously said he would resign if the new constitution is voted down in the referendum. Last month, the president said he will finish his four-year term regardless of the referendum’s outcome, declaring, "If the ‘No’ option wins, we would have to reassemble Congress, but we would also have to complete the four year-term of this government." Correa added that if Ecuadorians reject the new charter, they would be voting "against change."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the referendum to ratify the new constitution?

In favour	41%
Against	31%
Not sure	28%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,236 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from May 19 to May 22, 2008. Margin of error is 3.7 per cent.