June 20, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - If the Lisbon Treaty were put to a vote in the Netherlands it would be rejected, according to a poll by Maurice de Hond. 54 per cent of respondents would vote against the common body of law for the European Union (EU) if they could cast a ballot in a referendum, while 46 per cent would vote in favour.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - If the Lisbon Treaty were put to a vote in the Netherlands it would be rejected, according to a poll by Maurice de Hond. 54 per cent of respondents would vote against the common body of law for the European Union (EU) if they could cast a ballot in a referendum, while 46 per cent would vote in favour.

Opposition to the treaty has increased by nine points since last September.

EU heads of state officially signed the European Constitution on Oct. 29, 2004. The project for a continental body of law was practically abandoned in 2005, after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed document in two plebiscites.

In October 2007, leaders of the 27 EU member nations reached an agreement on the Lisbon Treaty and Charter of Fundamental Rights. The Lisbon Treaty provisions call for the creation of new posts, such as a foreign policy chief, and a High Representative who will answer to EU governments and serve as vice-president of the European Commission. The Charter will become legally binding in all EU member states except Britain, which negotiated an exemption.

The EU leaders would also choose a president of the European Council for a two and a half year renewable term. This will effectively eliminate the current six-month rotating presidency among member nations. The Lisbon Treaty also provides for the creation of a mutual defence clause, in case one of the member states is attacked.

If all countries ratify the treaty—whether through a referendum or a parliamentary vote—it will become effective in January 2009. Ireland, due to its internal regulations, is the only country that must hold a nationwide vote on the Lisbon Treaty, while other governments can decide whether they want to do the same. On Jun. 12, 53.4 per cent of Irish voters rejected the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty.

Earlier this month, the lower house of the Dutch legislature approved the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. Dutch European affairs minister Frans Timmermans expressed satisfaction with the way legislators held what he called a "serious discussion" before the vote, saying, "The debate on the bill could serve as a model for close, painstaking consultation between parliament and the government."

Polling Data

If a referendum on the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty were held, how would you vote?

	Jun. 2008	Sept. 2007
In favour	46%	55%
Against	54%	45%

Source: Maurice de Hond
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Dutch adults, conducted on Jun. 14, 2008. No margin of error was provided.