Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Democrats Lead by 12 Points in United States

July 09, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Democratic Party holds a large advantage in the early stages of the 2008 United States congressional campaign, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democrats in next year's election, up one point since late May.

Conversely, 34 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican Party candidates—down four points in a month—six per cent would support a third party, and 14 per cent are undecided.

American voters renewed the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate in November 2006. In January, the Democratic Party took control of the lower house for the first time since 1994, with 233 lawmakers. A victory for the Democratic candidates for the Senate in Montana and Virginia also gave the party a majority in the upper house. Democratic California congresswoman Nancy Pelosi became the first female speaker of the House.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Senate discussed a revised immigration bill, which would allow illegal immigrants to come forward and obtain a "Z visa." After paying fees, a $5,000 U.S. fine and then returning to their home countries, they could apply for permanent residency, which could be granted in eight to 13 years. The bill also includes a proposal to introduce a points system that would prioritize access to the U.S. for skilled and educated immigrants, as well as new family-reunification guidelines. On Jun. 28, the U.S. Senate failed to approve a motion to limit debate on the bill after a 46-53 vote.

In his Jul. 7 radio address, U.S. president George W. Bush expressed disappointment with the legislative branch, saying, "At their current pace, I will not see a single one of the 12 must-pass bills before Congress leaves Washington for the month-long August recess. (...) By failing to do the work necessary to pass these important bills by the end of the fiscal year, Democrats are failing in their responsibility to make tough decisions and spend the people's money wisely."

Polling Data

Generic Congressional Ballot

Jun. 21

May 31

May 3

Democratic Party

46%

45%

47%

Republican Party

34%

38%

36%

Third Party

6%

5%

4%

Not sure

14%

12%

13%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 792 likely American voters, conducted on Jun. 20 and Jun. 21, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

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