Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Democrats 2008: Obama 51.9%, Hillary 48.1%

February 23, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Barack Obama holds a slight advantage in the national race for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a review of four recent public opinion polls. 51.9 per cent of decided Democratic supporters would back the Illinois senator in a primary.

New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is a close second with 49.1 per cent.

Yesterday, Rodham Clinton discussed the Democratic race, saying, "I’m very proud that we have the two of us in this contest seeking the Democratic nomination, hoping to become our next president. Obviously, I believe that, you know, my record and my plans for what we can do for our country are ones that, you know, really are rooted in my experience and my strengths, being able to bring about the positive differences that people talk to me about."

After the first 35 Democratic presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, Obama has secured the support of 1,319 pledged delegates and super-delegates, followed by Rodham Clinton with 1,250. Candidates require the backing of at least 2,025 delegates to earn the nomination.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - National Support for Democrats

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama

National Support

 

Clinton

Obama

ARGM Poll of Polls

48.1%

51.9%

(4) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News

44%

44%

(3) Diageo/Hotline

45%

43%

(2) Zogby International / Reuters

38%

52%

(1) American Research Group

45%

47%

(4) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News (391 likely Democratic voters, Feb. 19-20, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(3) Financial Dynamics / Diageo/Hotline (361 likely Democratic voters, Feb. 14-17, 2008, 5.1 MofE)
(2) Zogby International / Reuters (494 likely Democratic voters, Feb. 13-16, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(1) American Research Group (600 registered Democratic voters, Feb. 9-13, 2008, 4.0 MofE)

 

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