December 18, 2006

Abstract: (ARGM) - Hillary Rodham Clinton maintains a large advantage as the preferred presidential candidate for Democratic Party supporters in the United States, according to a poll by Hart/McInturff released by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. 37 per cent of respondents would support the New York senator in a 2008 primary.

(ARGM) - Hillary Rodham Clinton maintains a large advantage as the preferred presidential candidate for Democratic Party supporters in the United States, according to a poll by Hart/McInturff released by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. 37 per cent of respondents would support the New York senator in a 2008 primary.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 18 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 14 per cent, and Massachusetts senator and 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry with 11 per cent. Support is lower for Delaware senator Joseph Biden, Indiana senator Evan Bayh, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson.

On Dec. 16, Bayh announced he would not seek the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008, declaring, "The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknown candidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath. (...) I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue. This is not the year for me."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote?

Hillary Rodham Clinton	37%
Barack Obama	18%
John Edwards	14%
John Kerry	11%
Joseph Biden	4%
Evan Bayh	3%
Bill Richardson	2%
Tom Vilsack	--
Other	3%
None	3%
Not sure	5%

Source: Hart/McInturff / The Wall Street Journal / NBC News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with Democratic Party supporters among 1,006 American adults, conducted from Dec. 8 to Dec. 11, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.