Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Democrats 2008: Hillary 50.9%, Obama 49.1%

February 06, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a slight advantage in the national race for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a review of seven public opinion polls conducted just before Super Tuesday. 50.9 per cent of decided Democratic supporters would back the New York senator in a primary.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is a close second with 49.1 per cent.

After the first four Democratic presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, Rodham Clinton has secured the support of 232 pledged delegates and super-delegates, followed by Obama with 158.

On Feb. 3, Rodham Clinton discussed her views on the coalition effort in Iraq, saying, "The so-called surge was designed to give the Iraqi government the space and time to make the tough decisions that only the Iraqis can make for themselves. It’s my assessment that only now is the Iraqi government starting to grapple with problems that many of us have been pushing them to resolve for five years. (...) I think we’ve got to bring our troops home and really require and put the pressure on the Iraqis to make the tough decisions that they have to make."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - National Support for Democrats

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama

Note: Mike Gravel and John Edwards were only included in some surveys.

 

Clinton

Obama

ARGM Poll of Polls

50.9%

49.1%

(6) Opinion Research / CNN

49%

46%

(5) RT Strategies / Cook

37%

43%

(4) CBS News

41%

41%

(3) Gallup / USA Today

45%

44%

(2) Pew Research Center

46%

38%

(1) ABC News / Washington Post

47%

43%

(6) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN (500 registered Democratic voters, Feb. 1-3, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(5) RT Strategies / Cook Political Report (376 registered Democratic voters, Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2008, 5.1 MofE)
(4) CBS News (491 registered Democratic voters, Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(3) Gallup / USA Today (985 registered Democratic voters, Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2008, 3.0 MofE)
(2) Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (596 registered Democratic voters, Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(1) ABC News / Washington Post (Likely Democratic primary voters among 1,249 American adults, Jan. 30-Feb. 1, 2008, No MofE)

 

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