February 14, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton keeps the upper hand in the national race for the Democratic Party’s United States presidential nomination, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator in a primary, while 41 per cent would back Illinois senator Barack Obama.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton keeps the upper hand in the national race for the Democratic Party’s United States presidential nomination, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator in a primary, while 41 per cent would back Illinois senator Barack Obama.

After the first 32 Democratic presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, Obama has secured the support of 1,253 pledged delegates and super-delegates, followed by Rodham Clinton with 1,211.

Yesterday, Rodham Clinton expressed confidence in an eventual victory, saying, "This is a long and winding road and we’re all picking up delegates as we go. The key is to end up with 2,025 delegates. 2,025. That’s our objective and I feel good about what we’re going to be doing in the states."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were (...), for whom would you vote? (Democrats and Democratic leaners only)

	Feb. 2008	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton	46%	40%	45%
Barack Obama	41%	33%	23%
John Edwards	n.a.	13%	12%
Bill Richardson	n.a.	n.a.	4%
Joe Biden	n.a.	n.a.	2%
Chris Dodd	n.a.	n.a.	1%
Other	1%	--	1%
None	7%	6%	5%
Unsure	5%	8%	7%

Source: Ipsos-Public Affairs / Associated Press
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,029 American adults, conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.