Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Davis Best UK Tory, But Would Lose to Labour

October 20, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Britain's Labour party could earn another term in government under Gordon Brown, according to a poll by MORI published in The Sun. At least 39 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing party with the current chancellor of the exchequer as leader.

In May, British voters renewed the House of Commons. The governing Labour party secured 35.2 per cent of the vote and 356 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 32.2 per cent and 197 legislators, and the Liberal Democrats with 22 per cent and 62 lawmakers. Following the election, Tory leader Michael Howard vowed to stand down.

The process to select the new Conservative leader began this month. Conservative MPs will participate in weekly ballots with the lowest-ranked candidate dropping out of the race until two contenders are left. These two remaining candidates face off in a postal ballot open to all Conservative members.

On Oct. 18, shadow home secretary David Davis won the first Tory ballot with 62 votes, followed by education spokesman David Cameron with 56 votes, shadow foreign secretary Liam Fox with 42 votes, and former chancellor of the exchequer Kenneth Clarke—who was eliminated from contention—with 38 votes.

The next election must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion. A Brown-led Labour holds a 12-point lead over the Davis-led Tories, a 14-point advantage over the Cameron-led Conservatives, and a 17-point edge with Fox as opposition leader.

From 1979 to 1997, the Conservative party administered the British government under prime ministers Margaret Thatcher and John Major. In this year's election, the Tories won 31 more seats than in the 2001 ballot.

Last October, current prime minister and labour leader Tony Blair announced that he would retire at the end of his third term.

Polling Data

If Gordon Brown were leader of the Labour party and David Cameron / David Davis / Liam Fox were leader of the Conservative party and Charles Kennedy leader of the Liberal Democrats, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party?

 

Cameron

Davis

Fox

Labour

40%

39%

42%

Conservative

26%

27%

25%

Liberal Democrats

25%

25%

23%

Source: MORI / The Sun
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 504 British adults, conducted on Sept. 29 and Sept. 30, 2005. No margin of error was provided.

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