June 12, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Ecuadorean president Rafael Correa has lost public support this month, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 53 per cent of respondents approve of Correa’s performance, down five points since April.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa has lost public support this month, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 53 per cent of respondents approve of Correa’s performance, down five points since April.

Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents.

In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress. The proposed Constitution must be ratified in a nationwide referendum in 2008. The Constituent Assembly has discussed a wide variety of topics, including the possibility of consecutive presidential re-election, as well as new oil and mining regulations.

Earlier this month, the price of Ecuador’s bonds in international markets fell sharply as Correa hinted at a possible default on foreign debt, currently tabled at $10.3 billion U.S. The president, who is waiting for a commission reviewing Ecuador’s debt to release its final report in 45 days, declared: "There will be civil and administrative actions to seek the annulment of illegitimate debt. (...) We can show how many times the lawyers Ecuador hired were the same lawyers that worked for bondholders. (...) They stole billions of dollars, those lowlifes, who today are working with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, and some are still working in the central bank."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Rafael Correa’s performance as president?

	Jun. 2008	Apr. 2008	Mar. 2008
Approve	53%	58%	62%
Disapprove	39%	34%	30%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,216 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from May 29 to Jun. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.3 per cent.