July 17, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Chile’s most visible opposition leader could become the country’s next president, according to a poll by CEP. 32 per cent of respondents would vote for Sebastián Piñera of the conservative National Renewal (RN) party in next year’s presidential election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Chile’s most visible opposition leader could become the country’s next president, according to a poll by CEP. 32 per cent of respondents would vote for Sebastián Piñera of the conservative National Renewal (RN) party in next year’s presidential election.

Former Chilean president Ricardo Lagos Escobar of the governing Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD) is second with 19 per cent, followed by current Organization of American States (OAS) secretary-general José Miguel Insulza with 11 per cent. Support is lower for Joaquín Lavín of the conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI), former foreign minister Soledad Alvear, and former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle.

The CPD’s Michelle Bachelet—a former defence minister—was elected in a January 2006 run-off with 53.49 per cent of all cast ballots. Piñera was second with 46.51 per cent.

Earlier this month, Alvear discussed the results of this survey, saying, "Piñera is the only one constantly campaigning. (...) [When the CPD has a candidate], I am sure that the numbers will be very different; there is a long way before the next election."

Bachelet is ineligible for a consecutive term in office. The next presidential election in Chile is scheduled for December 2009.

Polling Data

If the presidential election took place this Sunday, who would you vote for?

Sebastián Piñera	32%
Ricardo Lagos	19%
José Miguel Insulza	11%
Joaquín Lavín	9%
Soledad Alvear	8%
Eduardo Frei	6%

Source: Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP)
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,505 Chilean adults, conducted from Jun. 7 to Jun. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 3.0 per cent.