September 02, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom is losing ground ahead of this month’s presidential election in Guatemala, according to a poll by Borge y Asociados published in El Periódico. 30.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE) candidate in the ballot, down 2.3 points since July.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom is losing ground ahead of this month’s presidential election in Guatemala, according to a poll by Borge y Asociados published in El Periódico. 30.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE) candidate in the ballot, down 2.3 points since July.

Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP) is a close second with 27.7 per cent, up 4.6 points in a month. Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) is third with 10.5 per cent, followed by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú of Encounter for Guatemala (EPG) with 5.7 per cent.

Support is lower for Luis Rabbé of the Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG), Eduardo Suger of Centre for Social Action (CAS), Fritz García Gallont of the Unionist Party (PU), and Mario Estrada of the Union for Nationalist Change (UCN). 18.3 per cent of respondents are undecided or will vote for other contenders.

In three different scenarios for a run-off vote, Colom leads Pérez Molina by just 2.6 points, Giammattei by 29.7 points, and Menchú by 46.1 points.

GANA candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

On Aug. 28, the top five candidates participated in a televised debate, where crime and immigration were featured as the main electoral issues. Colom talked about the country’s high crime rate, saying, "Crime is not just about prosecution; it’s not just about justice. Crime also has its origins in Guatemala’s deep social problems—poverty, marginalization, discrimination, neglect. Our comprehensive program has a component that is about security, but the counterweight to it is the human solidarity program." Pérez Molina pledged to reinstate the death penalty in order to deter criminal activity.

The presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Aug. 2007	Jul. 2007	Jun. 2007
Álvaro Colom (UNE)	30.7%	33.0%	28.0%
Otto Pérez Molina (PP)	27.7%	23.1%	13.2%
Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)	10.5%	8.9%	5.8%
Rigoberta Menchú (EPG)	5.7%	5.5%	6.7%
Luis Rabbé (FRG)	3.4%	3.8%	3.2%
Eduardo Suger (CAS)	1.7%	n.a.	n.a.
Fritz García Gallont (PU)	1.0%	2.1%	0.9%
Mario Estrada (UCN)	1.0%	2.1%	1.3%
Harold Caballeros (VIVA)	n.a.	n.a.	2.5%
Other / Undecided	18.3%	21.5%	38.4%

Run-off Scenarios

Álvaro Colom (UNE) 43.8% - 41.2% Otto Pérez Molina (PP)

Álvaro Colom (UNE) 53.0% - 23.3% Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)

Álvaro Colom (UNE) 59.6% - 13.5% Rigoberta Menchú (EPG)

Source: Borge y Asociados / El Periódico

Methodology: Interviews with 1,008 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Aug. 13 to Aug. 26, 2007. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.