June 12, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is no clear frontrunner in today’s Lisbon Treaty referendum in Ireland, according to a poll by Red C published in the Sunday Business Post. 42 per cent of respondents would ratify the new common European agreement, while 39 per cent disagree. One-in-five respondents remain undecided.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is no clear frontrunner in today’s Lisbon Treaty referendum in Ireland, according to a poll by Red C published in the Sunday Business Post. 42 per cent of respondents would ratify the new common European agreement, while 39 per cent disagree. One-in-five respondents remain undecided.

EU heads of state officially signed the European Constitution on Oct. 29, 2004. The project for a continental body of law was practically abandoned in 2005, after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed document in two plebiscites.

In October 2007, leaders of the 27 EU member nations reached an agreement on the Lisbon Treaty and Charter of Fundamental Rights. The Lisbon Treaty provisions call for the creation of new posts, such as a foreign policy chief, and a High Representative who will answer to EU governments and serve as vice-president of the European Commission. The Charter will become legally binding in all EU member states except Britain, which negotiated an exemption.

The EU leaders would also choose a president of the European Council for a two and a half year renewable term. This will effectively eliminate the current six-month rotating presidency among member nations. The Lisbon Treaty also provides for the creation of a mutual defence clause, in case one of the member states is attacked.

If all countries ratify the treaty—whether through a referendum or a parliamentary vote—it will become effective in January 2009. Ireland, due to its internal regulations, is the only country that must hold a nationwide vote on the Lisbon Treaty, while other governments can decide whether they want to do the same. Irish voters will take part on the referendum today.

Yesterday, former Irish attorney-general Peter Sutherland discussed the process, saying, "The Irish situation is very fragile and I can’t give a clear prognosis. I hope that the correct result will prevail and would be horrified if it were to be otherwise."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty?

	Jun. 4	May 21	May 7
Yes	42%	41%	38%
No	39%	33%	28%
Not sure	19%	26%	34%

Source: Red C / Sunday Business Post
Methodology: Interviews with 1,005 Irish adults, conducted on Jun. 3 and Jun. 4, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.