Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Civil War Evident for Many Palestinians

February 01, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are concerned about the armed confrontations between Fatah and Hamas, according to a poll by the An-Najah National University. 53.5 per cent of respondents think the Palestinian arena is now witnessing a civil war.

Fatah member Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In April, the European Commission and the United States suspended direct aid to the Palestinian Authority until Hamas "renounces violence." Negotiations geared at establishing a unity government with Hamas and Fatah failed in October. Tensions have escalated between supporters of the two rival factions. 74.5 per cent of respondents think the security conditions in the area have worsened over the last few months.

Over the past four weeks, more than 60 people have been killed in the Palestinian territories. On Jan. 25, fighting intensified between Hamas and Fatah and since then more than 30 people have died.

On Jan. 28, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia extended an invitation to leaders of both Hamas and Fatah to meet in the Muslim holy city of Mecca for talks in a "neutral atmosphere". Officials from both parties accepted, but there are no concrete plans for the meeting yet.

On that same day, the Jerusalem Post reported that an official from the Palestinian Authority close to Abbas said Iran and Syria "are encouraging Hamas to continue fighting against Fatah. (...) They want to deliver a message to the Americans that there will be no stability in Palestine, Iraq and Lebanon as long as Washington continues to ignore Syria and Iran." Meanwhile, Haniyeh urged Palestinians to stop the violence and support peaceful talks.

Polling Data

After the armed confrontations between Fatah and Hamas, do you think that the Palestinian arena is now witnessing a civil war?

Yes

53.5%

No

42.1%

No opinion

4.3%

In your opinion, how did security conditions develop within the last months?

Towards the best

5.4%

Towards the worst

74.5%

It stayed the same

19.2%

No opinion

0.9%

Source: An-Najah National University
Methodology: Interviews with 1,360 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Jan. 22 to Jan. 24, 2007. Margin of error is 2 per cent.

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