Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Christian Democrats, Socialists Lead in Belgium

June 09, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Christian Democratic and Flemish (CDV) / New Flemish Alliance (NVA) is leading all other parties in Belgium's Flemish region ahead of tomorrow's legislative ballot, according to a poll by Ipsos released by VTM. 28.4 per cent of respondents in Flanders would support the CDV/NVA in the election.

The Flemish Interest (VB)—which advocates for the outright independence of the Flemish North—is second with 22.9 per cent, followed by the Socialist Party Difference (SP.A) / Spirit with 19.4 per cent, the Flemish Liberals and Democrats (VLD) / Vivant (V) with 18.6 per cent, the Greens! (Groen!) with 6.3 per cent, and List Dedecker with two per cent.

In Wallonia—the French-speaking south—the Socialist Party (PS) is first with 33.1 per cent, followed by the Reformist Movement (MR) with 26.7 per cent, the Humanist Democratic Centre (CDH) with 17.3 per cent, the Environmentalists (Ecolo) with 10.3 per cent, and the National Front (FN) with 8.2 per cent.

Belgium's federal election is scheduled for Jun. 10. The governing coalition, led by prime minister Guy Verhofstadt, will seek to repeat the success of the 2003 ballot, where four parties—the Flemish Liberals and Democrats (VLD), the Socialist Party Difference (SP.A) / Spirit, the Reformist Movement (MR) and the Socialist Party (PS)—secured 97 of the 150 seats in the Chamber of People's Representatives. Verhofstadt has headed the VLD since 1992.

On Jun. 5, CVD/NVA leader Yves Leterme sparked controversy when he told reporters he would rather not refer to the mass killings of Armenian citizens by Turkey in 1915 as genocide, saying, "As a politician, I make no judgement on that until the international institutions have made a pronouncement on it. I hold firm to this position and have nothing more to add."

The state-sponsored deportation campaign initiated by the Turkish government led to a high number of Armenian fatalities, estimated at anywhere from 200,000 to 1.8 million. While some scholars believe the campaign was a deliberate attempt to exterminate Armenians, Turkey has never formally accepted the use of the term "genocide" to describe the event.

Polling Data

Voting Intention in Belgium

Flanders

Christian Democratic and Flemish (CDV)
/ New Flemish Alliance (NVA)

28.4%

Flemish Interest (VB)

22.9%

Socialist Party Difference (SP.A) / Spirit

19.4%

Flemish Liberals and Democrats (VLD)
/ Vivant (V)

18.6%

Greens! (Groen!)

6.3%

List Dedecker

2.0%

Wallonia

Socialist Party (PS)

33.1%

Reformist Movement (MR)

26.7%

Humanist Democratic Centre (CDH)

17.3%

Environmentalists (Ecolo)

10.3%

National Front (FN)

8.2%

Source: Ipsos / VTM
Methodology: Interviews with 2,000 Belgian voters, conducted from May 16 to May 29, 2007. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

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