(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The opposition Christian-Democratic Union (CSU) and the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) could fall short in their bid to form the next German government, according to a poll by GMS. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the coalition in this Sunday's election to the Federal Diet.

The governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) of chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is second with 33 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with eight per cent, the Left Party (Linke)—which merges the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) and the Electoral Alternative for Labour and Social Justice (WASG)—with seven per cent, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) also with seven per cent.

On Jul. 1, Schroeder deliberately lost a no-confidence motion in the Federal Diet after a 151-296 vote, with 148 abstentions. A federal election has been scheduled for Sept. 18. The CDU has named Angela Merkel as its chancellor candidate. Germany has never had a female head of government.

The FDP is considered as the most likely coalition partner for the CDU-CSU alliance. Support for the combined political organizations is at 49 per cent, while the prospective total for the SPD, Grune and Linke is 48 per cent. The prospect of a federal administration encompassing the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats—referred to as the "Grand Coalition"—has been thoroughly discussed in the media. In 1966, the CDU's Kurt Georg Kiesinger governed with the support of the SPD.

On Sept. 12, Schroeder criticized Merkel's views on Turkey, declaring, "(She) is making the same mistake with Turkey that she made with Iraq. She believed in the war in Iraq, and supported it. (...) You cannot turn a security issue, a foreign policy issue, into a subject for national dispute."

In February 2004, Merkel suggested that the European Union (EU) should consider granting Turkey only a "privileged partnership" as opposed to full membership.

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