Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Christian Democrats Keep 15-Point Lead in Germany

June 13, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Many German adults will support the Christian-Democratic Union (CSU) and the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) in the next federal election, according to a poll by FG Wahlen released by ZDF. 44 per cent of respondents would vote for the coalition.

The governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) of chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is second with 29 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with eight per cent, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with seven per cent, and the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) with five per cent.

On May 22, the Christian Democrats won the election in North Rhine-Westphalia with 44.8 per cent of the vote. The Social Democrats had been involved in the government of Germany's most populous state since 1966. While the next parliamentary ballot was tentatively scheduled for September 2006, Schroeder has openly suggested holding an early federal election. A confidence vote is expected before the end of the legislative period on Jul. 1. There is growing speculation that the ballot could be scheduled for Sept. 18.

On May 30, the CDU officially named current leader Angela Merkel as its chancellor candidate. For the past six months, voting intention polls have consistently suggested that the Christian Democrats and the FDP could elect enough lawmakers to the 603-seat Federal Diet to form the next administration.

Schroeder's government has been affected by Germany's highest jobless ratio since the 1930s. The country's unemployment rate was 11.8 per cent in March, meaning 4.8 million adults are looking for work.

Last week, Schroeder denied rumours that he was considering a resignation, saying, "I have sworn an oath of office. That commitment gives me a special responsibility. I fully believe the course of reform politics agreed by me and my government is the right way to modernize our country, maintain its prosperity and to guarantee enduring social security and participation."

Polling Data

What party would you support in Germany's next federal election?

 

Jun. 9

May 26

Christian-Democratic Union
Bavarian Christian-Social (CDU-CSU)

44%

45%

Social Democratic Party (SPD)

29%

30%

Green Party (Grune)

8%

8%

Free Democratic Party (FDP)

7%

6%

Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS)

5%

5%

Source: FG Wahlen / ZDF
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,298 German adults, conducted from Jun. 7 to Jun. 9, 2005. Margin of error is 2.7 per cent.

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