Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Christian Democrats Close to 50% in Germany

June 03, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The coalition of the Christian-Democratic Union (CSU) and the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) maintains a high level of public backing in Germany, according to a poll by Forsa released by Stern and RTL. 49 per cent of respondents would support the alliance in the next federal election, a four per cent increase in a week.

The governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) of chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is second with 28 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with eight per cent, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with seven per cent, and the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) with four per cent.

On May 22, the Christian Democrats won the election in North Rhine-Westphalia with 44.8 per cent of the vote. The Social Democrats had been involved in the government of Germany's most populous state since 1966. While the next parliamentary ballot was tentatively scheduled for September 2006, Schroeder has openly suggested holding an early federal election. A confidence vote is expected before the end of the legislative period on Jul. 1.

On May 30, the CDU officially named current leader Angela Merkel as its chancellor candidate. For the past six months, voting intention polls have consistently suggested that the Christian Democrats and the FDP could elect enough lawmakers to the 603-seat Federal Diet to form the next administration. Schroeder holds a two per cent lead over Merkel in the preferred chancellor category.

Schroeder's government has been affected by Germany's highest jobless ratio since the 1930s. The country's unemployment rate was 11.8 per cent in March, meaning 4.8 million adults are looking for work.

There is growing speculation that the federal election could be scheduled for Sept. 18. Yesterday, Schroeder urged European leaders to push forward with the ratification of the European Constitution, saying, "I still believe that if we want a democratic, social and strong Europe, we need the constitution." Ten nations—including Germany—have already endorsed the document. French and Dutch voters have rejected the proposed body of law.

Polling Data

What party would you support in Germany's next federal election?

 

May 27

May 20

May 13

Christian-Democratic Union
Bavarian Christian-Social (CDU-CSU)

49%

45%

46%

Social Democratic Party (SPD)

28%

28%

28%

Green Party (Grune)

8%

8%

8%

Free Democratic Party (FDP)

7%

9%

9%

Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS)

4%

5%

4%

Who would you prefer as chancellor?

 

May 27

May 20

Gerhard Schroeder (SPD)

40%

42%

Angela Merkel (CDU)

38%

30%

Source: Forsa / Stern / RTL
Methodology: Interviews to 2,501 German adults, conducted from May 23 to May 27, 2005. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

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