February 11, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The House of Freedom (Casa) coalition could return to power in Italy’s next legislative ballot, according to a poll by SWG released by RAI. At least 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the centre-right coalition in three different electoral scenarios.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The House of Freedom (Casa) coalition could return to power in Italy’s next legislative ballot, according to a poll by SWG released by RAI. At least 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the centre-right coalition in three different electoral scenarios.

In the first scenario, 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the House of Freedom, followed by the Democratic Party (PD) of Walter Veltroni with 32 per cent, the Left Rainbow (SA)—which brings together the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC), the Party of Italian Communists (PCI), the Green Federation (Verdi) and the Democratic Left (SD)—with 10 per cent, Antonio di Pietro’s Italy of Values with five per cent, and the White Rose (RB) movement—created in January by former Union of Christian and Centre-Democrats (UDC) members Bruno Tabacci and Mario Baccini—with three per cent.

In a second scenario, 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the House of Freedom, while 36 per cent would support a coalition of the PD and Italy of Values. Finally, if all centre-left parties—including the SA—were to contest the ballot as a full coalition, the House of Freedom holds a four-point edge over the purported "New Union."

Italian voters renewed the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in April 2006. The centre-left Union, led by Romano Prodi, secured 348 seats in the lower house and 158 seats in the upper house. The victory put an end to the government of the centre-right House of Freedom, headed by Silvio Berlusconi.

In May 2006, Prodi was formally appointed as prime minister. The Union leader had previously served as head of government from May 1996 to October 1998. In January, Prodi lost a confidence vote in Parliament and was forced to step down. After Senate president Franco Marini failed in his bid to form a caretaker administration, a legislative election was scheduled for Apr. 13 and Apr. 14.

In December, Berlusconi announced the creation of the Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL). On Feb. 8, Berlusconi called for unity among all centre-right parties, declaring, "We will bring together all Italian citizens, liberal and moderate, who do not identify with the left. (...) It will be one parliamentary group."

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the election to the Chamber of Deputies?

First Scenartio - No centre-left coalitions

House of Freedom (Centre-Right)	49%
Democratic Party (PD)	32%
Left Rainbow (SA)	10%
Italy of Values (di Pietro)	5%
White Rose (RB)	3%
Other party	1%

Second Scenario - A partial centre-left coalition

House of Freedom (Centre-Right)	49%
Democratic Party (PD) and Italy of Values (di Pietro)	36%
Left Rainbow (SA)	10%
White Rose (RB)	3%
Other party	2%

Third Scenario - A "New Union" of centre-left parties including the Democratic Party (PD), Italy of Values (di Pietro) and Left Rainbow (SA).

House of Freedom (Centre-Right)	47%
New Union (Centre-left)	43%
White Rose (RB)	4%
Other party	6%

Source: SWG / RAI
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Italian adults, conducted on Feb. 6, 2008. No margin of error was provided.