March 22, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The centre-right Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL) could secure a victory in an upcoming legislative election, according to a poll by Dinamiche. 37.9 per cent of respondents would back the PdL in next month’s ballot, while 33.2 per cent would vote for the centre-left Democratic Party (PD).

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The centre-right Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL) could secure a victory in an upcoming legislative election, according to a poll by Dinamiche. 37.9 per cent of respondents would back the PdL in next month’s ballot, while 33.2 per cent would vote for the centre-left Democratic Party (PD).

Support is lower for the Left Rainbow (SA), the Union of the Centre, the Northern League (LN), Italy of Values (Lista di Pietro), The Right (La Destra), the Socialist Party (PS), and the Movement for Autonomy (MPA).

Italian voters renewed the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in April 2006. The Union (Unione) of centre-left parties, led by Romano Prodi, secured 348 seats in the lower house and 158 seats in the upper house. The victory put an end to the government of the centre-right House of Freedom (Casa), headed by Silvio Berlusconi.

In May 2006, Prodi was formally appointed as prime minister. The Union leader had previously served as head of government from May 1996 to October 1998.

In January 2008, Prodi lost a confidence vote in Parliament and was forced to step down. After Senate president Franco Marini failed in his bid to form a caretaker administration, an early legislative election was scheduled for Apr. 13 and Apr. 14.

In October 2007, Veltroni assembled the PD with several centre-left political organizations. In November, Berlusconi announced the creation of the PdL.

On Mar. 20, Italy’s Communications Authority fined Mediaset—a television broadcaster owned by Berlusconi—close to $155,000 U.S. for providing unfair coverage of the upcoming election. Two other stations—including the state-owned RAI—were warned about possible sanctions if they fail to adjust their reporting. While the agency did not specify which candidate is being favoured by each outlet, it has been suggested that Mediaset focuses on Berlusconi most of the time, while RAI apparently favours Veltroni.

Polling Data

If the election were held today, which party would you vote for?

Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL)	37.9%
Democratic Party (PD)	33.2%
Left Rainbow (SA)	7.7%
Union of the Centre	6.1%
Northern League (LN)	5.6%
Italy of Values (Lista di Pietro)	3.7%
The Right (La Destra)	2.0%
Socialist Party (PS)	1.4%
Movement for Autonomy (MPA)	0.4%
Other parties	2.0%

Source: Dinamiche
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Italian adults, conducted from Mar. 7 to Mar. 11, 2008. No margin of error was provided.