Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Casey Has Six-Point Lead in Pennsylvania

May 08, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Prospective Democratic Party candidate Bob Casey could become one of Pennsylvania's representatives in the United States Senate, according to a poll by Franklin and Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research. 47 per cent of respondents in the Keystone State would vote for Casey in a head-to-head contest against Republican incumbent U.S. senator Rick Santorum.

Casey has been Pennsylvania's state treasurer since January 2005, and previously served as the state auditor general for eight years. Casey is the son of former Pennsylvania governor Robert P. Casey, and lost the 2002 Democratic primary to current governor Ed Rendell.

Support for Santorum is at 41 per cent, and 12 per cent of respondents remain undecided. Since February, backing for Casey fell by three points, while support for Santorum increased by two points.

Santorum was first elected to the United States Senate in 1994, and earned a second term in 2000, defeating Democrat Ron Klink with 53 per cent of all cast ballots. He had previously served for two consecutive terms in the House of Representatives.

On May 5, Santorum called for a federal bill that would allow the National Institutes of Health to explore new methods for obtaining human embryonic stem cells without destroying human embryos. Santorum explained his rationale, saying, "I feel comfortable, given all of the conversations I have had with a number of bioethicists, that these are appropriate steps to take."

The Democrats have not elected a Pennsylvanian to a full term in the U.S. Senate since 1962. The Democratic primary, where Casey, university professor Chuck Pennacchio and attorney Alan Sandals are contenting, will take place on May 16. The election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

Polling Data

If the election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senator were being held TODAY and the candidates were Bob Casey, Jr. and Rick Santorum, would you vote for...

May 2006

Feb. 2006

Sept. 2005

Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

47%

50%

50%

Rick Santorum (R)

41%

39%

37%

Don't know

12%

11%

13%

Source: Franklin and Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research
Methodology: Interviews to 578 registered Pennsylvania voters, conducted from Apr. 27 to May 1, 2006. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

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