October 17, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - An opposition contender could defeat Kenyan incumbent Mwai Kibaki in this year’s presidential election, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 53 per cent of respondents would vote for Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), up six points since September.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - An opposition contender could defeat Kenyan incumbent Mwai Kibaki in this year’s presidential election, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 53 per cent of respondents would vote for Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), up six points since September.

Kibaki, of the recently created Party of National Unity (PNU), is second with 37 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) with eight per cent.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the PNU and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Oct. 15, special programmes minister John Munyes dismissed Odinga’s standing in voting intention surveys, declaring, "We are going to show our rivals dust and surprise many who think Kibaki will lose to Raila in the polls." Munyes promised a period of aggressive campaigning before the presidential election, tentatively scheduled for December.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Oct. 2007	Sept. 2007	Jun. 2007
Raila Odinga (ODM)	53%	47%	25%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	37%	38%	45%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	8%	8%	11%

Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,020 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted on Oct. 10 and Oct. 11, 2007. No margin of error was provided.