(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Almost half of adults in Canada believe Stephen Harper will retain his role as head of government and Democratic Party nominee Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 46 per cent of respondents expect this outcome after the two North American countries hold their elections.

However, 30 per cent of respondents say they would personally prefer an Obama victory in the U.S. and the Liberal party to form the government in Canada, and 31 per cent consider this to be the better scenario for Canada.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper formed a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

Obama became the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee on Aug. 28, while Arizona senator John McCain accepted the Republican Party’s nomination on Sept. 4.

On Sept. 7, Harper discussed the U.S. race, saying, "I’ve been following it very closely. (...) I’ve always said it’s the Democrats’ to lose. I still say it’s the Democrats in a walk in Congress."

The next federal election in Canada is scheduled for Oct. 14. American voters will elect a new president, and renew the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Here is a list of four different outcomes for the elections that are going to take place this year in Canada and the United States. Which one of these outcomes would you personally prefer?

Now, here is the same list of four different outcomes for the elections that are going to take place this year in Canada and the United States. Which one of these outcomes do you think would be better for Canada?

Now, here is the same list of four different outcomes for the elections that are going to take place this year in Canada and the United States. Which one of these outcomes do you think is most likely to happen?

Source: Angus Reid Strategies
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,003 Canadian adults, conducted on Sept. 17 and Sept. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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