Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Canadian Race Almost Even, Minority Looms

June 07, 2004

(CPOD) Jun. 7, 2004 - The ruling Liberal party and the opposition Conservative party are virtually tied in Canada's federal election, according to a poll by Ipsos-Reid released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 32 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, while 31 per cent would support the Conservatives.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 17 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent and the Green party with six per cent.

Canadian voters will renew the House of Commons on Jun. 28. The Liberal party achieved three straight majority governments under Jean Chrétien in 1993, 1997 and 2000. Current prime minister Paul Martin leads the ruling political organization into a federal election for the first time.

The poll projects anywhere from 115 to 119 seats in the House of Commons for the Liberals, and anywhere from 110 to 114 for the Conservatives. Parties must secure at least 155 seats to form a majority government.

On Jun. 5, Conservative leader Stephen Harper presented his party's campaign platform. The document proposes the gradual elimination of the middle-income tax bracket and a review of employment insurance benefits, as well as increased investment for the military.

Polling Data

What party would you support in the next federal election?

Jun. 3

May 30

Liberal

32%

34%

Conservative

31%

30%

New Democratic Party

17%

16%

Bloc Québécois

11%

11%

Green

6%

6%


Source: Ipsos-Reid / CTV / The Globe and Mail
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,000 Canadian adults, conducted from Jun. 1 to Jun. 3, 2004. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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