(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The opposition Conservative party holds the lead in Canada's federal political scene, according to a poll by Ekos Research Associates published in the Toronto Star. 36.2 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next election.

The governing Liberal party is second with 25 per cent—a 15.2 per cent drop since February—followed by the New Democratic Party with 20.5 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 12.6 per cent and the Green party with five per cent.

Liberal leader Paul Martin took over as Canada's prime minister in December 2003. In the June 2004 election, his Liberal party secured a minority government with 135 seats in the House of Commons.

The government and the Liberal party have been affected by the public inquiry into the federal sponsorship program initiated during the tenure of prime minister Jean Chrétien to promote Canada in Quebec. In February 2004, auditor-general Sheila Fraser concluded that approximately $75 million U.S. of the program's budget was paid to Liberal-friendly advertising firms for little or no work.

Martin called a public inquiry into the sponsorship program last year. Justice John Gomery was put in charge of the investigation, which is expected to conclude in December 2005. Last week, the testimony of Groupaction Marketing president Jean Brault was released to the public. Brault—who faces fraud and conspiracy charges—claims to have paid close to $1 million U.S. to Liberal fundraisers in Quebec, in order to secure advertising contracts with the federal government.

A sitting government can only be toppled when it loses a vote that deals with confidence or finances. On Apr. 9, Conservative leader Stephen Harper criticized the government's proposed same-sex marriage bill, declaring, "Undermining the traditional definition of marriage is an assault on the beliefs of all cultural and religious communities who have come to this country."

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