Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Canada Election 2006: BC Emerging as Battleground

December 03, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The Liberal party remains in first place in Canada, according to a three-day rolling poll by The Strategic Counsel released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 35 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals in next month's federal election.

The opposition Conservative party is second with 30 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 16 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 14 per cent, and the Green party with six per cent. The Greens gained one point, and the NDP lost one point.

The Bloc remains the dominant party in Quebec with 54 per cent, while support for the Tories in the Prairies is at 59 per cent. In Ontario, a province that elects 106 members to the 308-seat House of Commons, the Liberals hold a 13-point lead over the Conservatives. The Tories are three points ahead of the Grits in British Columbia.

Canadians will elect a new government on Jan. 23, 2006. 69 per cent of respondents believe Conservative leader Stephen Harper's pledge to reduce the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 7 per cent to 5 per cent if he becomes prime minister is a good idea, but only 28 per cent say it would influence how they vote.

In June, the House of Commons passed a bill that legalizes same-sex marriage in the entire country after a 158-133 vote. Most Liberal, Bloc and NDP members supported the legislation. 50 per cent of respondents think Parliament should not hold a free vote on same-sex marriage, while 44 per cent believe the issue should be revisited.

The Liberal party has formed the government since 1993.

Polling Data

If the federal election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (Quebec only) the Bloc Québécois candidate in your area?

 

Dec. 1

Nov. 30

Nov. 27

Nov. 6

Liberal

35%

35%

35%

35%

Conservative

30%

30%

29%

28%

New Democratic Party

16%

17%

17%

16%

Bloc Québécois

14%

14%

14%

13%

Green

6%

5%

5%

8%

Regional Distribution (Nov. 29 - Dec. 1)

 

BC

Prai.

Ont.

Que.

Liberal

31%

25%

43%

30%

Conservative

34%

59%

30%

8%

New Democratic Party

25%

14%

20%

6%

Bloc Québécois

--

--

--

54%

Green

6%

2%

6%

2%

Other highlights: 50 per cent of respondents think Parliament should not hold a free vote on same-sex marriage, while 44 per cent believe the issue should be revisited. 69 per cent of respondents think the Conservative party's proposal to lower to Goods and Services Tax (GST) is a good idea, but only 28 per cent say it would influence how they vote.

Source: The Strategic Counsel / CTV / The Globe and Mail
Methodology: Interviews with 1,500 Canadian adults, conducted from Nov. 29 to Dec. 1, 2005. Margin of error is 2.6 per cent.

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