Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

California Primary: Mixed Reviews on Both Sides

February 05, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Voting intention polls conducted in the Golden State have not provided a clear frontrunner for either party in today’s United States presidential primary.

In three of the seven surveys of Republican Party voters, Arizona senator John McCain sits in first place, while former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is ahead on three studies, and another one—by Rasmussen Reports—has the two candidates tied with 36 per cent. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee cannot clear the 14 per cent mark, while Texas congressman Ron Paul reached 10 per cent in the poll by Field.

In four of the seven surveys of Democratic Party voters, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is ahead, while Illinois senator Barack Obama holds the upper hand in the remaining three surveys—including two by Zogby International.

In all, 21 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses today, choosing 41 per cent of all delegates. The Democratic primaries or caucuses will be held in 22 states, American Samoa and "Democrats Abroad", choosing 52 per cent of all pledged delegates.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - California Primary

Republican Party

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney.

California

 

Huckabee

McCain

Paul

Romney

(7) Survey USA

9%

39%

7%

36%

(6) American Research Group

16%

32%

8%

33%

(5) Zogby International

12%

32%

5%

40%

(4) Zogby International

12%

34%

5%

37%

(3) Rasmussen Reports

10%

38%

6%

38%

(2) Mason-Dixon

13%

40%

3%

31%

(1) Field

13%

32%

10%

24%

(7) SurveyUSA (517 likely Republican primary voters, Feb. 2-3, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(6) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Feb. 1-2, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(5) Zogby International (915 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.2, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(4) Zogby International (1,185 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.2, 2008, 2.9 MofE)
(3) Rasmussen Reports (693 likely Republican primary voters, Feb. 2, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(2) Mason-Dixon (400 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1,, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(1) Field (481 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 25-Feb. 1, 2008, 4.6 MofE, Rudy Giuliani voters were re-interviewed after Giuliani withdrew from the race)

Democratic Party

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama

California

 

Clinton

Obama

(7) Survey USA

53%

41%

(6) American Research Group

47%

39%

(5) Zogby International

40%

46%

(4) Zogby International

41%

45%

(3) Rasmussen Reports

44%

45%

(2) Mason-Dixon

45%

36%

(1) Field

36%

34%

(7) SurveyUSA (638 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 2-3, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(6) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 1-2, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(5) Zogby International (967 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 1-3, 2008, 3.2 MofE)
(4) Zogby International (1,185 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.2, 2008, 2.9 MofE)
(3) Rasmussen Reports (798 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 2, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(2) Mason-Dixon (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1,, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(1) Field (511 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 25-Feb. 1, 2008, 4.5 MofE, John Edwards voters were re-interviewed after Edwards withdrew from the race)

 

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