November 05, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fewer people in Britain want the government to call a referendum on whether the country should adopt a European Union (EU) treaty but they still represent the majority, according to a poll by YouGov. 57 per cent of respondents think there should be a nationwide vote on the proposed body of law, down seven points since September.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fewer people in Britain want the government to call a referendum on whether the country should adopt a European Union (EU) treaty but they still represent the majority, according to a poll by YouGov. 57 per cent of respondents think there should be a nationwide vote on the proposed body of law, down seven points since September.

The heads of state of the European Union (EU) officially signed the European Constitution on Oct. 29, 2004. The project for a continental body of law was practically abandoned in 2005, after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed document in two plebiscites.

In June, the leaders of the 27 EU member nations reached an agreement in Germany to revise the proposed Constitution, create a new European Union Constitution Treaty (EUCT) before the end of this year, and achieve its ratification by mid-2009.

On Oct. 19, a final agreement was reached on the Lisbon Treaty and Charter of Fundamental Rights. The Lisbon Treaty provisions call for the creation of new posts, such as a foreign policy chief, and a High Representative who will answer to EU governments and serve as vice-president of the European Commission. The Charter will become legally binding in all EU member states except Britain, which negotiated an exemption.

The EU leaders would also choose a president of the European Council for a two and a half year renewable term. This will effectively eliminate the current six-month rotating presidency among member nations. The Lisbon Treaty also provides for the creation of a mutual defence clause, in case one of the member states is attacked.

If all countries ratify the treaty—whether through a referendum or a parliamentary vote—the body of law will become effective in January 2009. Ireland, due to its internal regulations, is the only country that must hold a nationwide vote on the Lisbon Treaty, while other governments can decide whether they want to do the same.

British prime minister Gordon Brown of the Labour party has ruled out a nationwide referendum on the treaty. David Cameron, leader of the opposition Conservative party, has said he will fight for the plebiscite to take place.

On Oct. 29, Conservative parliamentarian Daniel Hannan urged Cameron to clearly pledge that a referendum on the EU treaty will take place under a Tory administration—even if the document is ratified by the current Labour government—saying, "If the treaty is as bad as David Cameron says it is, it doesn’t become any better for having received Royal Assent. If the case for a referendum is as powerful as he says it is, it is no less powerful when applied retrospectively. There is a danger, though, that voters will think that my party is getting in its surrender in advance, preparing now for a sell-out in government."

Polling Data

Do you believe that a national referendum should, or should not, be held to decide whether Britain should ratify the new European Union treaty?

	Oct. 2007	Sept. 2007
Yes, there should be a referendum	57%	64%
No, there should not be a referendum	19%	12%
Not sure	24%	24%

Source: YouGov
Methodology: Online interviews with 2,105 British adults, conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 24, 2007. No margin of error was provided.