Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Britons Expect Close Parliamentary Ballot

February 08, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Voters in Britain are divided on the outcome of the next House of Commons ballot according to a poll by Populus published in The Times. 26 per cent of respondents expect a majority for the Labour party, while 33 per cent believe the governing political organization will be the largest party in a hung Parliament.

Conversely, 22 per cent of respondents think the Conservative party will win a majority of the seats, while 19 per cent say the opposition political organization will be the largest party in a hung Parliament.

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

In May 2005, British voters renewed the House of Commons. The governing Labour party secured 356 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 197 and the Liberal Democrats with 62. Labour leader Tony Blair has served as prime minister since 1997. In October 2004, Blair vowed to retire at the end of his third term in office. Current chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown has been mentioned as his possible replacement.

In December 2005, the Conservative party announced that David Cameron would be their new leader. The 39-year-old Cameron becomes the fourth person to command the opposition organization in the past eight years. The Liberal Democrats will settle on a new leader by early March. The leadership ballot was called last month after Charles Kennedy admitted to a drinking problem. Foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell, party president Simon Hughes, and economics spokesman Chris Huhne are running.

Yesterday, Brown vowed to push forward with a series of policy changes implemented by Blair, saying, "My message is reform is going to continue. This is not the last education reform there will be."

Polling Data

By the time of the next general election, all three main political parties are likely to have changed leaders from the last election. Regardless of your own politics, what do you think is the most likely outcome of the next election?

Labour majority

26%

Hung Parliament, with
Labour as the largest party

33%

Hung Parliament, with
Tories as the largest party

19%

Conservative majority

22%

Source: Populus / The Times
Methodology: Online interviews with 570 British adults, conducted from Jan. 17 to Jan. 24, 2006. No margin of error was provided.

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