November 30, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Labour party has lost a significant amount of support in Britain over the past few months, according to a poll by Communicate Research published in The Independent. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, while 27 per cent would back Labour.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Labour party has lost a significant amount of support in Britain over the past few months, according to a poll by Communicate Research published in The Independent. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, while 27 per cent would back Labour.

The Liberal Democrats are third with 18 per cent, and 15 per cent of respondents would vote for other parties. Support for the Tories increased by four points since August, while backing for Labour fell by nine points.

In June, Gordon Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. In October, Cameron challenged Brown to call a snap election, but the prime minister later announced he would not hold an early ballot.

In March 2006, the Liberal Democrats chose foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell as their new leader. On Oct. 15, Campbell tendered his resignation. A leadership ballot of party members is currently underway, and the new Lib-Dem leader will be announced on Dec. 17. Campbell’s possible successors are environment spokesman Chris Huhne and current parliamentarian Nick Clegg.

On Nov. 27, Brown ordered an investigation into donations for his party worth about $1.2 million U.S. that exceeded legal amounts. The money, donated by property developer David Abrahams, was given to Labour through intermediaries beginning in 2003. John Whitty, a former Labour general secretary, began the inquiry the following day. Cameron questioned Brown’s credibility and ability to remain in office while the investigation takes place, saying, "Is this man simply not cut out for the job?"

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next general election?

	Nov. 2007	Aug. 2007	Jul. 2007
Conservative	40%	36%	34%
Labour	27%	36%	37%
Liberal Democrat	18%	15%	16%
Other	15%	13%	13%

Source: Communicate Research / The Independent
Methodology: Interviews with 1,014 British adults, conducted from Nov. 23 to Nov. 25, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.