October 30, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Britain’s opposition Conservative party gained public backing this month and is getting close to the country’s governing political organization, according to a poll by Ipsos-MORI published in The Observer. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the Labour party in the next election to the House of Commons, while 40 per cent would back the Tories.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Britain’s opposition Conservative party gained public backing this month and is getting close to the country’s governing political organization, according to a poll by Ipsos-MORI published in The Observer. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the Labour party in the next election to the House of Commons, while 40 per cent would back the Tories.

Support for Labour remained unchanged since early October, while backing for the Tories increased by two points. The Liberal Democrats are third with 13 per cent, and six per cent of respondents would vote for other parties.

In June, Gordon Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. On Oct. 3, during the party’s annual conference, Cameron talked about his work in reforming the party and bringing it to the centre of the political spectrum. He also challenged Brown to call an early election. On Oct. 6, the prime minister announced he would not hold an early ballot.

In March 2006, the Liberal Democrats chose foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell as their new leader. On Oct. 15, Campbell tendered his resignation. A leadership ballot of party members will take place in November, and the new Lib-Dem leader will be announced on Dec. 17. The preliminary list of Campbell’s possible successors includes environment spokesman Chris Huhne and current parliamentarian Nick Clegg.

Yesterday, Cameron said his party will hold a "grown-up conversation" about immigration with the British people and vowed to cut the number of newcomers if he forms the next government. The Tory leader said the country needs "a policy to reduce the level of net immigration", and added: "This will require a level of strategic thinking and joined-up policy-making that seems to be completely beyond this government."

Cameron also said his immigration policy would contemplate increasing police resources in order to find residents who are staying illegally in the country, and called the level of immigration in Britain "unsustainable".

Polling Data

How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow? Which party are you most inclined to support?

	Oct. 23	Oct. 10	Sept. 28
Labour	41%	41%	41%
Conservative	40%	38%	34%
Liberal Democrats	13%	11%	16%
Other	6%	10%	9%

Source: Ipsos-MORI / The Observer
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,987 British adults, conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 23, 2007. No margin of error was provided.