October 16, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Britain’s main opposition party has gained momentum after a national caucus meeting took place earlier this month, according to a poll by Ipsos-Mori published in The Sun. While the governing Labour party stayed at 41 per cent since late September, 38 per cent of respondents would back the Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, up four points in 12 days.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Britain’s main opposition party has gained momentum after a national caucus meeting took place earlier this month, according to a poll by Ipsos-Mori published in The Sun. While the governing Labour party stayed at 41 per cent since late September, 38 per cent of respondents would back the Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, up four points in 12 days.

The Liberal Democrats are third with 11 per cent, down five points since late September. 10 per cent of respondents would vote for other parties.

In June, Gordon Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. On Oct. 3, during the party’s annual conference, Cameron told his audience: "I want to change this country from one where the state gets bigger and bigger to a country where everyone has the opportunity and power to get on in life."

In March 2006, the Liberal Democrats chose foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell as their new leader. Yesterday, Campbell tendered his resignation, which read: "It has become clear following the prime minister’s decision not to hold an election, questions about leadership are getting in the way of further progress by the party."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow? Which party are you most inclined to support?

	Oct. 10	Sept. 28	Aug. 29
Labour	41%	41%	41%
Conservative	38%	34%	36%
Liberal Democrats	11%	16%	16%
Scottish National Party / Plaid Cymru	4%	2%	3%
Green Party	2%	2%	1%
UK Independence Party	1%	2%	1%
Other	3%	3%	2%

Source: Ipsos-MORI / The Sun
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 596 certain British voters, conducted on Oct. 10, 2007. No margin of error was provided.