November 16, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for Britain’s major opposition party has increased this month, according to a poll by ICM Research. 43 per cent of respondents would vote for the Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, up three points in two weeks.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for Britain’s major opposition party has increased this month, according to a poll by ICM Research. 43 per cent of respondents would vote for the Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, up three points in two weeks.

The governing Labour party is second with 35 per cent, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 15 per cent. Seven per cent of respondents would vote for other parties. Support for Labour remained stable since late October, while backing for the Lib-Dems fell by three points.

In June, Gordon Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. On Oct. 3, during the party’s annual conference, Cameron talked about his work in reforming the party and bringing it to the centre of the political spectrum. He also challenged Brown to call an early election. On Oct. 6, the prime minister announced he would not hold an early ballot.

In March 2006, the Liberal Democrats chose foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell as their new leader. On Oct. 15, Campbell tendered his resignation. A leadership ballot of party members will take place this month, and the new Lib-Dem leader will be announced on Dec. 17. Campbell’s possible successors are environment spokesman Chris Huhne and current parliamentarian Nick Clegg.

On Nov. 13, Cameron unveiled a plan to curb what he called "excessive council tax increases" that would entail allowing city leaders—such as the mayor—to raise money while also ordering them to always put tax hikes to a local referendum. Cameron criticized London mayor Ken Livingstone’s annual council tax raise, saying, "We will give power to the people to stop high council tax bills. (...) (Councils) must explain to local taxpayers why they want to raise taxes by so much and they must show what they would do—a shadow budget—in the event of their plans being rejected."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

If there were to be a general election tomorrow, which party do you think you would vote for?

	Nov. 10	Oct. 28	Oct. 11
Conservative	43%	40%	43%
Labour	35%	35%	36%
Liberal Democrat	15%	18%	14%
Other	7%	7%	7%

Source: ICM Research
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,001 British adults, conducted from Nov. 8 to Nov. 10, 2007. No margin of error was provided.