December 22, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto is the most popular political organization in the country ahead of a legislative election, according to a poll by the International Republican Institute. 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the PPPP in January’s ballot, up two points since September.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto is the most popular political organization in the country ahead of a legislative election, according to a poll by the International Republican Institute. 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the PPPP in January’s ballot, up two points since September.

The Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) is a close second with 25 per cent, followed by the Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) with 23 per cent. Support is lower for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Muttahhida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA), and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).

In October 1999, Pervez Musharraf led a military coup to depose then Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Two years later, Musharraf assumed the presidency. An April 2002 referendum—where less than 30 per cent of eligible voters participated—extended his term until October 2007.

In October 2002, the pro-Musharraf PML-Q elected 69 legislators to the 342-seat National Assembly. Following a deal with the MMA, the legislative branch passed a controversial constitutional amendment which legalized the 1999 coup and gave the president the authority to dissolve the legislative branch with the Supreme Court’s approval.

On Nov. 3, Musharraf declared a state of emergency claiming the country’s judges were incurring in "activism" and saying he needed special tools to deal with growing Islamic militancy. The measure was condemned by the U.S. government, which called for the restoration of democracy and urged Musharraf to maintain his promises of holding a legislative election next year and stepping down as army chief.

On Nov. 18, Musharraf resigned as army chief. On Dec. 16, the president lifted the state of emergency in Pakistan, claiming it was "unavoidable" in order to save Pakistan from major threats.

On Dec. 17, Pakistan’s Election Commission rejected an appeal by Sharif, effectively banning him from participating in next month’s legislative election. Sharif’s PML-N described the decision as "politically motivated." Party spokesman Ahsan Iqbal declared: "This also shows that they are still afraid of his popularity and cannot face him. This is also shows that there is no level playing field in these elections."

The legislative election will take place on Jan. 8, 2008.

Polling Data

If the elections for the National Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote?

	Nov. 2007	Sept. 2007	Jul. 2007
Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP)	30%	28%	32%
Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz Sharif (PML-N)	25%	36%	19%
Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q)	23%	16%	23%
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)	6%	5%	4%
Muttahhida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA)	4%	5%	5%
Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)	2%	1%	2%
Not sure	4%	5%	10%

Source: International Republican Institute
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 3,520 Pakistani adults, conducted from Nov. 19 to Nov. 28, 2007. Margin of error is 1.69 per cent.