March 15, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The centre-right party headed by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi remains ahead in Italy, according to a poll by SWG. 37 per cent of respondents would back the Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL) in next month’s legislative election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The centre-right party headed by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi remains ahead in Italy, according to a poll by SWG. 37 per cent of respondents would back the Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL) in next month’s legislative election.

The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) of former Rome mayor Walter Veltroni is second with 33 per cent, followed by the Left Rainbow (SA) with seven per cent, the Union of the Centre also with seven per cent, the Northern League (LN) with 6.5 per cent, and Italy of Values (Lista di Pietro) with 3.5 per cent. Support is lower for The Right (La Destra), the Movement for Autonomy (MPA), the Socialist Party (PS), the Communist Workers Party (PCL), and the List for Life (Prolife).

Italian voters renewed the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in April 2006. The Union (Unione) of centre-left parties, led by Romano Prodi, secured 348 seats in the lower house and 158 seats in the upper house. The victory put an end to the government of the centre-right House of Freedom (Casa), headed by Berlusconi.

In May 2006, Prodi was formally appointed as prime minister. The Union leader had previously served as head of government from May 1996 to October 1998. In January 2008, Prodi lost a confidence vote in Parliament and was forced to step down. After Senate president Franco Marini failed in his bid to form a caretaker administration, a legislative election was scheduled for next month.

In October 2007, Veltroni assembled the Democratic Party (PD) with several centre-left political organizations. In November, Berlusconi announced the creation of the Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL).

On Mar. 12, Franco Pavoncello, president of the John Cabot University of Rome, commented on Veltroni’s attempt to run as the leader of one party—as opposed to leading a broad coalition—and assured that his bid will alter Italian politics in the future, declaring, "Veltroni’s decision to run alone is the most important novelty introduced in the Italian political system in many years."

The legislative election is scheduled for Apr. 13 and Apr. 14.

Polling Data

If the election were held today, which party would you vote for?

Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL)	37.0%
Democratic Party (PD)	33.0%
Left Rainbow (SA)	7.0%
Union of the Centre	7.0%
Northern League (LN)	6.5%
Italy of Values (Lista di Pietro)	3.5%
The Right (La Destra)	1.5%
Movement for Autonomy (MPA)	1.5%
Socialist Party (PS)	1.0%
Communist Workers Party (PCL)	0.5%
List for Life (Prolife)	0.2%

Source: SWG
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,600 Italian adults, conducted on Mar. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 2.4 per cent.