Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Australia’s ALP Maintains Comfortable Advantage

July 21, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Prime minister Kevin Rudd’s party continues to draw high public support in Australia, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 48.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives, down 2.5 points since late June.

The opposition Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 35 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with eight per cent, and Family First with 2.5 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an 18-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

Earlier this month, Queensland Liberal leader Mark McArdle suggested that state premier and ALP member Anna Bligh might have incurred in conflict of interest when she and her husband stayed at the home of a powerful developer for three weeks in January. Bligh said she was "house-sitting" for her "friend" Ross Kelly, a board member of Thiess. The company won a billionaire contract to build Brisbane’s Airport Link project in May.

On Jul. 18, Rudd defended Bligh, saying, "I have said before and I will say it again, that I have known Anna for a long time. She is a person and a premier of great—and in my experience—absolute integrity and I am sure these questions will be dealt with in the appropriate way."

Polling Data

If a federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?

 

Jul. 6

Jun. 22

Jun. 8

Australian Labor Party

48.5%

52%

48.5%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

35%

34%

36%

Australian Greens

8%

8%

8.5%

Family First

2.5%

1.5%

2%

Others

6%

4.5%

5%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

 

Jul. 6

Jun. 22

Jun. 8

Australian Labor Party

59%

61.5%

59%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

41%

38.5%

41%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,806 Australian voters, conducted on Jun. 28, Jun. 29, Jul. 5 and Jul. 6, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

 

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