April 24, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More people in Australia are backing the governing party this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 55 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives, up four points since early April.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More people in Australia are backing the governing party this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 55 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives, up four points since early April.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 33 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with six per cent, and Family First with one per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a 28-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

On Apr. 21, Rudd said his government would do a "root-and-branch" review of taxation in Australia and introduce reforms. The following day, an unnamed spokesperson for Rudd said raising the General Sales Tax (GST) is out of the question, declaring, "The prime minister made it crystal clear before the election that there would be absolutely no increase in the GST under a Rudd Labor government."

Polling Data

If a federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?

	Apr. 17	Apr. 3	Mar. 23
Australian Labor Party	55%	51%	55%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	33%	34%	31%
Australian Greens	6%	7.5%	7%
Family First	1%	2%	3%
Others	5%	5.5%	4%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Apr. 17	Apr. 3	Mar. 23
Australian Labor Party	64%	61.5%	63.5%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	36%	38.5%	36.5%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 765 Australian voters, conducted on Apr. 16 and Apr. 17, 2008. No margin of error was provided.