(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Australia’s governing Coalition of Liberals and Nationals could fail to secure a new term in office in this Saturday’s ballot, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the election to the House of Representatives, down two points since early November.

The Coalition is second with 41 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with seven per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an eight-point lead over the Coalition.

When asked which political party they think will win the election, 62 per cent of respondents select the ALP, while 24 per cent mention the Coalition.

In the October 2004 election, John Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In December 2006, foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd became the new leader of the ALP, defeating Kim Beazley in an internal caucus ballot.

On Nov. 19, Howard expressed confidence in the Coalition’s chances, saying, "Yes, I believe we can win this election. I go into this last week very positive. (...) I believe that as we get closer to the election, people will focus on one simple question: who is better able to manage this $1.1 trillion economy?"

A legislative election is scheduled for Nov. 24.

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

Which political party do you think will win the federal election to be held next Saturday, the 24th of November?

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,696 Australian voters, conducted from Nov. 16 to Nov. 18, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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