(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Australian prime minister John Howard could be defeated by an opposition candidate in this month’s legislative ballot, according to a poll by Galaxy released by News Ltd. 52 per cent of respondents in the Bennelong constituency would vote for Maxine McKew of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the election to the House of Representatives, while 48 per cent would support Howard.

Australia’s preferential voting system allows electors to indicate an order of predilection for each contender in their riding, and eventually redistributes the ballots from smaller parties. Howard has held the Bennelong seat since 1974.

In the October 2004 election, Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as his Coalition of Liberals and Nationals secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In December 2006, foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd became the new leader of the ALP, defeating Kim Beazley in an internal caucus ballot.

McKew is a former journalist and broadcaster known for hosting several programs for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). She announced her candidacy for the Bennelong seat in February.

Howard has been actively campaigning in Bennelong and has already pledged over $13.9 million U.S. for the area. On Nov. 6, while visiting Bennelong, the prime minister promised to spend $2.2 million U.S. for a community centre and about $625,000 U.S. to install 50 surveillance cameras if re-elected.

Howard said the recent stabbing of a 17-year-old man and the shooting of a woman in the area stress the need for security cameras in Bennelong, and—recalling the 2005 terrorist attacks in England—he added: "All of you would be very conscious of just how effective the closed-circuit TV network in the city of London was in tracking down those responsible for the dreadful terrorist attack of July 2005."

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in next election to the House of Representatives?

Two-Party Preferred Vote

Source: Galaxy / News Ltd.
Methodology: Interviews to 800 Australian voters in the Bennelong constituency, conducted on Nov. 1 and Nov. 2, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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