June 07, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Adults in the United States believe neither of the country’s presumptive presidential nominees would have an impact on Iran’s nuclear program, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 63 per cent of respondents think Iran is not likely to stop developing nuclear weapons if Democrat Barack Obama wins the election, while 58 per cent feel the same way if Republican John McCain is victorious.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Adults in the United States believe neither of the country’s presumptive presidential nominees would have an impact on Iran’s nuclear program, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 63 per cent of respondents think Iran is not likely to stop developing nuclear weapons if Democrat Barack Obama wins the election, while 58 per cent feel the same way if Republican John McCain is victorious.

After being branded as part of an "axis of evil" by U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear program aims to produce energy, not weapons. In June 2005, former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won Iran’s presidential election in a run-off over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with 61.6 per cent of all cast ballots.

In December 2006 and March 2007, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed sanctions against Iran after it failed to stop uranium enrichment—a process needed both to make nuclear weapons and produce electricity.

In October, Bush announced a new set of unilateral sanctions against Iran, which include the designations of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "proliferator of weapons of mass destruction" and of the elite Quds Force as a "supporter of terrorism." The resolution has significant economic implications for Iran.

Earlier this month, the two main presidential candidates discussed their views on Iran at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

McCain declared: "We hear talk of a meeting with the Iranian leadership offered up as if it were some sudden inspiration, a bold new idea that somehow nobody has ever thought of before. (...) Rather than sitting down unconditionally with the Iranian president or supreme leader in the hope that we can talk sense into them, we must create the real-world pressures that will peacefully but decisively change the path they are on."

Obama stated: "Contrary to the claims of some, I have no interest in sitting down with our adversaries just for the sake of talking. But as president of the United States, I would be willing to lead tough and principled diplomacy with the appropriate Iranian leader at a time and place of my choosing if, and only if, it can advance the interests of the United States."

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If John McCain / Barack Obama is elected president, how likely is it that Iran will stop developing nuclear weapons capabilities?

	McCain	Obama
Very likely	9%	5%
Somewhat likely	20%	21%
Not very likely	38%	33%
Not at all likely	20%	30%
Not sure	14%	12%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Jun. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.