Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

ALP Remains Ahead in Australian Politics20070802

August 02, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Australian Labor Party (ALP) is still leading the federal political scene in the country, according to a poll by Galaxy published in The Herald Sun. 44 per cent of respondents would back the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives, down two points since early July.

The governing Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 41 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with 10 per cent. Australia's preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an eight-point lead over the Coalition.

In the October 2004 election, Australian prime minister John Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In December 2006, foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd became the new leader of the ALP, defeating Kim Beazley in an internal caucus ballot.

Last month, the Australian government arrested Indian citizen Mohamed Haneef in Brisbane, on suspicion of terrorism. Haneef—who is related to two suspects in the bombing at Scotland's Glasgow Airport—was eventually released after spending 25 days in custody.

On Jul. 31, Howard discussed the case, saying, "Australia will not be apologizing to Dr. Haneef. Dr. Haneef was not victimized and Australia's international reputation has not been harmed by this 'mis-start' to its new anti-terrorism laws."

Foreign minister Alexander Downer defended the performance of the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and the Department of Immigration and Citizenship, and also rejected calls for an apology, declaring, "What do you expect them to do, fall on the ground and grovel? Eat dirt? I mean, get real."

The next legislative election is tentatively scheduled for late 2007.

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next election to the House of Representatives?

Jul. 29

Jul. 1

Jun. 3

Australian Labor Party

44%

46%

44%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

41%

41%

42%

Australian Greens

10%

9%

10%

Other parties

5%

4%

4%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

Jul. 29

Jul. 1

Jun. 3

Australian Labor Party

54%

55%

53%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

46%

45%

47%

Source: Galaxy / The Herald Sun
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 996 Australian voters, conducted on Jul. 28 and Jul. 29, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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