June 23, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Australia’s governing party remains the most popular political organization in the country, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Australia’s governing party remains the most popular political organization in the country, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 33 per cent—down four points in two weeks—followed by the Australian Greens with 12 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an 18-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

Earlier this month, Rudd announced that he would be attending the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics. On Jun. 20, Nelson discussed his views, saying, "I have for several months said that I think Mr. Rudd as the prime minister of Australia should attend the Olympics. I think our sportsmen and women and their families expect to see their prime minister at the Olympic Games and I certainly won’t be joining in any criticism in Mr. Rudd going to the Olympics."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	Jun. 15	Jun. 1	May 18
Australian Labor Party	46%	46%	47%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	33%	37%	37%
Australian Greens	12%	10%	9%
Others	9%	7%	7%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Jun. 15	Jun. 1	May 18
Australian Labor Party	59%	57%	57%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	41%	43%	43%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,140 Australian voters, conducted from May 30 to Jun. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.