Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

ALP Drops, Ruling Coalition Stable in Australia

November 15, 2006

- The governing Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is holding on to the lead in Australia, according to a Newspoll published in The Australian. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the Coalition, while 37 per cent would support the opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives.

The Australian Greens are third with nine per cent. Australia's preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—has the Coalition and the ALP tied with 50 per cent.

In the October 2004 election, prime minister John Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In January 2005, Kim Beazley took over as opposition leader. Beazley commanded the ALP from March 1996 to November 2001.

Beazley dismissed being concerned about the latest numbers, saying, "What you've got to focus on when you are in politics is what you need to present to the Australian people, and campaign on this, at the next poll in which they have a chance to vote. What we are focused on very firmly is the needs and requirements of middle Australia—both their economic needs and also their need to live in and inherit a sustainable world—which is what we are talking about with global warming."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

Nov. 12

Oct. 29

Oct. 15

Coalition (Liberal / National)

41%

42%

41%

Australian Labor Party

37%

41%

41%

Australian Greens

9%

7%

6%

Others

13%

10%

12%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

Nov. 12

Oct. 29

Oct. 15

Australian Labor Party

50%

52%

52%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

50%

48%

48%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,152 Australian voters, conducted from Nov. 10 to Nov. 12, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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