Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

ALP Drops, Remains Ahead in Australia

July 30, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Australian Labor Party (ALP) is holding on to the top spot in the country’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 45.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 39.5 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with 7.5 per cent, and Family First with two per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a 10-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

Earlier this month, the Rudd government introduced its Green Paper, which outlines an emissions trading scheme that could begin operations in 2010.

On Jul. 23, Australian Greens leader Bob Brown discussed his views on the issue, saying, "We will be negotiating with the government to get the best outcome possible when it comes to legislation in the Senate. We don’t set preconditions on that."

Polling Data

If a federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?

 

Jul. 20

Jul. 13

Jul. 6

Australian Labor Party

45.5%

48%

48.5%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

39.5%

34.5%

35%

Australian Greens

7.5%

11.5%

8%

Family First

2%

2.5%

2.5%

Others

5%

3.5%

6%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

 

Jul. 20

Jul. 13

Jul. 6

Australian Labor Party

55%

59.5%

59%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

45%

40.5%

41%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 797 Australian voters, conducted on Jul. 19 and Jul. 20, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

 

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