Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

ALP Drops, Coalition Gains in Australia

September 03, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) remains the most popular political organization in the country but the governing Coalition is gaining support, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives, down 3.5 points since mid-August.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 41 per cent—up 4.5 points in two weeks—followed by the Australian Greens with 6.5 per cent. Support is lower for Family First, the Australian Democrats, and One Nation. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an eight-point lead over the Coalition.

In the October 2004 election, Australian prime minister John Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In December 2006, foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd became the new leader of the ALP, defeating Kim Beazley in an internal caucus ballot.

On Aug. 31, Rudd renewed his criticism on Howard’s proximity to the United States, saying that Australia’s alliance with the country should not amount to "automatic compliance" on foreign policy matters. U.S. president George W. Bush will arrive in Australia tomorrow for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Rudd declared: "The president of the United States will be a welcome visitor in our country. I look forward very much to meeting with Mr. Bush and having a discussion with him about Iraq, and Afghanistan and, of course, our own region here in the Asia Pacific."

The next legislative election is tentatively scheduled for late 2007.

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next election to the House of Representatives?

 

Aug. 26

Aug. 12

Jul. 29

Australian Labor Party

46%

49.5%

47%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

41%

36.5%

40.5%

Australian Greens

6.5%

7%

6.5%

Family First

1.5%

2%

1.5%

Australian Democrats

1%

1.5%

1%

One Nation

1%

1%

0.5%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

 

Aug. 26

Aug. 12

Jul. 29

Australian Labor Party

54%

58.5%

54.5%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

46%

41.5%

45.5%

 

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,271 Australian voters, conducted on Aug. 18, Aug. 19, Aug. 25 and Aug. 26, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

 

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