April 14, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) holds a commanding lead in the country’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives, up one point since mid-March.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) holds a commanding lead in the country’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives, up one point since mid-March.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 35 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with 10 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an 18-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

Rudd pledged during his campaign to strengthen Australia’s ties with China. The prime minister has expressed a personal affection for the Asian country, and is fluent in Mandarin.

Earlier this month, during an official visit to China, Rudd said he discussed the topics of human rights and Tibet’s autonomy with Chinese officials, adding, "In the process of developing a broad-based relationship we will at times have differences of opinion, like those that we’ve expressed in private discussions with the Chinese leadership on questions of human rights in Tibet. (...) But the point is that our relationship should be strong enough to cope with differences of view and we should never lose sight of the opportunities that this relationship offers all of us."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	Apr. 6	Mar. 16	Mar. 2
Australian Labor Party	48%	47%	51%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	35%	35%	31%
Australian Greens	10%	11%	10%
Others	7%	7%	8%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Apr. 6	Mar. 16	Mar. 2
Australian Labor Party	59%	59%	63%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	41%	41%	37%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,145 Australian voters, conducted from Apr. 4 to Apr. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.