June 14, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in the Palestinian Territories would vote for Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas if an election took place now, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 52 per cent of respondents in the West Bank and Gaza Strip would back the current Palestinian Authority president, while 40 per cent would vote for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in the Palestinian Territories would vote for Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas if an election took place now, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 52 per cent of respondents in the West Bank and Gaza Strip would back the current Palestinian Authority president, while 40 per cent would vote for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

In November 2007, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by U.S. president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

The Islamic Jihad organization has been launching Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since Hamas took control of the territory. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing the Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. In January, Israel completely sealed off its borders with the Gaza Strip and launched military operations in Gaza.

On May 27, Fayyad sent an official letter to the European Union (EU) to lobby against its upgrading of bilateral relations with Israel. Fayyad said that Israel still shows a "flagrant disregard" of Palestinian rights by continuing to build Jewish settlements in the West Bank and refusing to remove checkpoints in the occupied territories.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for if a presidential election took place today?

Mahmoud Abbas	52%
Ismail Haniyeh	40%
Other / Not sure	8%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Jun. 5 to Jun. 7, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.