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Abbas Regains Edge Among Palestinians

June 07, 2009

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Mahmoud Abbas holds the upper hand in the Palestinian Territories, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Fatah leader in the next presidential election, up five points since March.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is second with 44 per cent, down three points in two months. Seven per cent of respondents are undecided.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas recently extended his tenure until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. The current presidential term was supposed to end in January 2009.

Last month, Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said the current Palestinian government is "encouraged" by recent statements made by U.S. president Barack Obama, adding, "The Americans and Palestinians have a shared interest. (...) The same vision of peace based on the two-state solution."

Polling Data

If a presidential election were to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas were nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh were nominated by Hamas, who would you vote for?

 

May 2009

Mar. 2009

Dec. 2008

Mahmoud Abbas

49%

45%

48%

Ismail Haniyeh

44%

47%

38%

Not sure

7%

8%

14%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from May 21 to May 23, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.